NY-20: Predictions Thread

Polls close at 9PM Eastern tomorrow night for the whirlwind special election to fill the seat of Kirsten Gillibrand, where Democrat Scott Murphy and Republican Jim Tedisco are facing off for the big prize. We usually post these kinds of threads on election day, but let’s get started a little bit early this time: In the comments, feel free to share your predictions for this race.

The winner gets named national finance co-chair of DavidNYC’s new campaign for Manhattan Borough Dogcatcher. (What, you think he posted that thread out of mere idle curiosity?)

88 thoughts on “NY-20: Predictions Thread”

  2. Murphy.  Strictly on his poll momentumn.  The dynamics of the race–partisan makeup of the district, a Democrat in the white house–should favor Tedisco.

  6. Future U.S. Representative Murphy – 52.9%

    “The excuse to fire Michael Steele” Tedisco – 47.1%

  11. Since everyone is in the same ballpark, I’ll go to the hundredths..

    53.31 – Murphy

    46.69 – Tedisco

  12. i spent two weeks every summer growing up to gilbert lake near oneonta.  good job – you who called it.  and thank you to the volunteers – if i’m right it will be because of your good work and scott’s.

  13. Murphy 52.4%

    Tedisco 47.6%

    I’m looking forward to how the media will treat the GOP when they lose this. If the Democrats lost this seat, then it would be turned (unjustifiably so) into the rebirth of the GOP, so I wonder how this will play out when we win…

    Good luck Scott!

  15. Murphy 50.5%

    Tedisco 49.5%

    Very close due to better than expected GOTV efforts from the GOP but not enough to overcome the bad press Tedisco has justifiably received.

    Anyone want to due a “what Murphy needs to get” county by county type of prediction? I saw what Gillibrand got last time but what would a 50.1 to 49.9 type of result look like?

  17. Murphy 51.5%

    Tedisco 48.5%

    Republicans will spin this as much closer than the November election, too bad it is in New York.  They may make Tedisco a bad candidate.

  22. Murphy 54.5, Tedisco 45.5

    I think Tedisco is going to find that his position as top Republican in Albany is a much bigger hindrance than he realized.  They would have been better off with a rich businessman.

  23. Unfortunately I’ve seen this happen in my head and I see:

    Tedisco 52

    Murphy 47

    Also doesn’t hurt to hedge my bets in a tossup race; from a probability point of view

  24. Or thereabouts; if this was an all-hands-on-deck sort of election (like the one America just had), I think Murphy would win, but turnout in these specials is abysmal, and this is a GOP-leaning district.

  25.           Gillibrand (D)     Sweeney (R)          2006

    Columbia      58%              42%

    Delaware      46%              54%

    Dutchess      55%              45%

    Essex         52%              48%

    Greene        48%              52%

    Otsego        52%              48%

    Rensselaer    54%              46%

    Saratoga      53%              47%

    Warren        54%              46%

    Washington    53%              47%

    Total         53%              47%

               Clinton (D)      Spencer (R)          2006

    Columbia      60%              37%

    Delaware      51%              47%

    Dutchess      56%              42%

    Essex         56%              42%

    Greene        52%              46%

    Otsego        57%              40%

    Rensselaer    64%              34%

    Saratoga      57%              41%

    Warren        58%              40%

    Washington    56%              41%

    Total         59%              41%

               Spitzer (D)         Faso (R)           2006

    Columbia      58%               40%

    Delaware      56%               42%

    Dutchess      62%               36%

    Essex         57%               41%

    Greene        50%               49%

    Otsego        61%               36%

    Rensselaer    67%               32%

    Saratoga      62%               36%

    Warren        61%               37%

    Washington    60%               39%

    Total         62%               38%

               Gillibrand (D)    Treadwell (R)        2008

    Columbia      67%               33%

    Delaware      54%               46%

    Dutchess      60%               40%

    Essex         52%               48%

    Greene        56%               44%

    Otsego        54%               46%

    Rensselaer    64%               36%

    Saratoga      62%               38%

    Warren        64%               36%

    Washington    66%               34%

              Obama/Biden (D)     McCain/Palin (R)     2008

    Columbia      54%               45%

    Delaware      46%               52%

    Dutchess      53%               46%

    Essex         56%               43%

    Greene        44%               55%

    Otsego        51%               47%

    Rensselaer    53%               45%

    Saratoga      51%               48%

    Warren        49%               49%

    Washington    50%               49%

    My Prediction:

    Scott Murphy (D) 53.3%      Jim Tedisco (R)  47.7%

    Based on the districts voting record these past two years I predict that the election results tomorrow will be closets to Gllibrand’s first victory in the district back in 2006 when she defeated incumbent John Sweeney (R). Here are my predictions based on county results.

               Murphy (D)         Tedisco (R)

    Columbia      55%                45%

    Delaware      44%                56%

    Dutchess      54%                46%

    Essex         54%                46%

    Greene        47%                53%

    Otsego        50%                50%

    Rensselaer    53%                47%

    Saratoga      52%                48%

    Warren        51%                49%

    Washington    52%                48%  

    I think Scott Murphy will end up winning a wider than expected margin due to his great ground game and Tedisco’s failure at a campaign. Let’s hope we’re all right and Murphy pulls out a victory.          

  28. tedisco- 53

    murphy- 47

    im gonna blame a low turnout for the special. id love to see it reversed, but i just think the ground game w f*ck us. well have a better shot at him in 2010 when we have the oppurtunity for an actual primary and letting people have the chance to actually know the candidate instead of cramming it into a month and a half. also, once tedisco is forced to actually vote and, u know, take opinions on things, the voters will want him out  

  29. Tedisco 51.6

    Murphy 48.4

    I don’t know about anyone else, but I keep thinking about the OH-02 Special Election in 2005. This race is completely different in every way… but I just have a feeling that it’s going to be the same result– a victory in that it’s an incredibly close race that shouldn’t have been, but a loss in that the other side gets the most votes.

    I’d love to be wrong.

  32. Murphy 53.4%

    Tedisco 46.6%

    Very similar result to Gillibrand’s first win in 2006. High turn-out for a special also. Somewhere around 40%.

  34. Originally I thought Tedisco would pull in a bare win

    Then I saw:

    – the Obama and Gillabrand ads

    – Sundwall endorse Murphy

    – The Republicans try to pull in 911

    – The momentum on Murphy’s side

    so I’m saying 52.7 Murphy to 47.3 Tedisco

  37. 51.5 Tedisco, 48.5 Murphy.

    There was this interesting article on FiveThirtyEight the other day discussing how Democrats have won something like 60% of all elections in D+3 to R+3 districts since 2006.

    I think Murphy would win if this weren’t a special election, but I get the feeling that the GOP base is more motivated to come out in these special elections and that they’re pumping more money into this race.

    1. It should have been a relatively easy Republican pickup.  And whether easy or not, it would be a totally unnecessary one should it happen.

  38. Tedisco (R) 51.77%

    Murphy (D) 48.23%

    We’ll all be depressed tomorrow morning.

    DavidNYC for Dogcatcher.  

  39. Democrats are fat and happy with Obama in the White House and Republicans are agitated because they are out of power and have to watch their agenda being reversed after eight years. Paterson will look like even more of an idiot for appointing Gillibrand to the senate and exposing a vulnerable district.

  41. Anyway, couple tidbits.

    Cillizza says:

    “Most Republicans we talked to over the past 48 hours expect Tedisco to come up short against Murphy today.”

    http://voices.washingtonpost.c…

    While Boehner lowers expectations:

    “”It’s between those two candidates in New York,” Boehner explained to reporters. “I hope Jim Tedisco wins.”

    Polls have showed Murphy steadily gaining in the weeks leading up to tonight’s election for the seat once held by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.)

    “I believe the race in New York is going to be a close race,” Boehner said, adding: “President Obama won the seat during the presidential election, and so this is going to be a very close race

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

  43. But I have a sneaking feeling that this one is going our way.

    Murphy 52.4%, Tedisco 47.6%

    2. I was looking at the Redstate comments on Bro’s link, and who should pop up there, predicting a Tedisco victory, but our old friend from late last summer, SE-779!!  This time, he’s claiming to be a rock-ribbed Republican — but also seems to be pissing the folks over there off as well!!

    1. and this one is harder than most.

      The GOP has more money, and more at stake in this one.  The anti-Obama vote will be highly motivated. It’s easier to motivate the electorate to vote against someone (Obama) that everyone knows,rather than vote for someone (Murphy) that many people do not.  

      Perhaps the ‘vote against’ candidate for the Dems will be the combo of Limbaugh/intolerant,angry,grumpy status quo conservatism/GOP incompetence though.

      If Tedisco had been a better candidate, he would be a pretty safe bet.

      Maybe the voters will want to boost the chances of  Gillibrand winning a full term by electing Murphy.

      Momentum has been with Murphy, to be sure, but GOTV is what matters most. My guess is Tedisco wins a close one.

      Tedisco 52%

      Murphy  48%

      I hope I’m wrong.  

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